If an hypotetical third invasion would have followed the same pattern of the previous two, the Mongol would lose again. Logistically, having a April 21 library lawn T shirt based army crossing the sea is a nightmare, and this force the Mongol to follow a predictable route to land at the Hakata bay, twice. And despite their strenght, they weren’t able to make any significant victory in Kyushu, but suffered several defeats. So even by a tactical point of view, when the Mongols didn’t have an obvious numerical advantage, they lost all of their battles, like at Akasaka, Torikaigata or Mikuriya. The role of the kamikaze has been overblown by the defeated mongols and by the japanese clergy; in the first invasion, there is no mention in japanese sources of any storm, and in the second one, it was a final blow to an already defeated army.
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